Decoding the Rise (and Imminent Fall?) of Xi

 

Image Credit: Sound Cloud

To decode the phenomenon called Xi, one must travel back in time - a few centuries back!

Till the 16^th century, the dominant trade between major nations then used to be based on the Ancient Silk Route, covering China, India, Persia (modern day, Iran) and Europe via Turkey (gateway to Europe). China (under the Ming dynasties) and India (under the Gupta, Maurya and Chola dynasties) were the 2 most important players and had the largest GDPs amongst countries during those days.

Fast forward to 17^th and 18^th centuries, that era saw significant advances in ship building and maritime activities. While China and India continued their overall hold of the world trade share, smaller European nations like the Dutch, the Portuguese, the Spaniards and the English opened up new trade routes to Asia and Africa, and also led to the discovery of America!

However, the biggest disruption came with the Great Industrial Revolution in the 1800s led by Great Britain, which triggered the first era of globalisation with massive expansion of technology and trade. From thereon, the modus operandi of the European nations transformed to "colonisation-through-trade" of China, India, Africa, America, Canada, Australia, etc.

The next big disruption came with the end of the World War II in 1945, and with Europe in disarray & in a re-building phase, it was the turn of USSR and USA to arrive on the scene and flex their muscles. They became the 2 poles of the world based on their two disparate ideologies and politico-economic worldview (viz, Democratic governance with Capitalism vs Communist governance with Socialism) and the so-called Cold War started.

Few newly independent countries led by India, Egypt, Indonesia, Yugoslavia, etc. decided to stay away from the 2 blocs and formed a neutral bloc called Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). However, China charted a different course.

In 1949, Mao Tse Tung overthrew the imperial rulers of China through the infamous Cultural Revolution, which led to a bloodbath. He converted China into a Communist country and anointed himself as the life-time Chairman! He also sold a dream to the Chinese people coined as the 100-year Dream, that by 2049, China will become the No. 1 dominant power of the world again, both economically and in military terms! He also fought Nehru’s India in 1962 to showcase these ambitions.

The next Chinese leader of significance was Deng Xiaoping. Unlike Mao, Deng possibly had more realism and practical wisdom. He was a reformist and is credited to having converted China’s economic system to capitalist concepts by attracting foreign investments to build internal capacity, however continuing to be governed by the Communist Party principles. He also scrapped the lifetime Chairman concept of Mao and amended the Party constitution to have the President to hold the post for only 2 terms. He however did not forget Mao’s 100-year dream! He coined a phrase “Lie low and bide your time”, which meant that China would play under the radar, till it attains adequate economic and military might and the make its moves.

Subsequent Chinese leaders, Jian Zemin and Hu Jintao continued the same path of Deng. Over the years, with the rest of the world smug and feigning innocence and ignorance about the Chinese long-term motives, China prospered and became a power to reckon with.

And then came along, Xi Jinping!

Xi, based on his various recent moves, seems to have taken to Mao’s ideals and dreams literally. He wants to be remembered as the leader who realised Mao’s 100-year dream for the Chinese. But in his quest for this legacy, he seems to be in a tearing hurry and does not want to wait till 2049 (which is two decades away). He is 67 years old now and by 2049, he will be a ripe 87 years. So, like Mao, he has contrived to scrap Deng’s 2-term formula and enshrined himself as the lifetime Chairman-cum-President! The Red Emperor has already bared his lungs, ready to spew fire!

To realise this dream, he has conceptualised and put in motion his pet Belt and Road project, with which he believes China will dominate the world through a debt-trap diplomacy. He has further opened-up multiple battlefronts ranging from

a)      purportedly unleashing COVID-19 virus on the world to cripple global economy

b)     crushing his opponents inside China (party leaders and even public at large)

c)      illegally claiming and occupying maritime zones of various smaller ASEAN countries in the South China Sea under their Nine Dash formula

d)     trying salami-slicing tactics for landgrab with India, Nepal & Bhutan in the Himalayas

e)     forming unholy alliances with pariah nations like Pakistan, N. Korea & now Iran

f)   trade frictions with almost all major players like US, Japan, S. Korea, UK, Germany, France, Canada, Australia, India, et al.

But has he bitten too much than he can chew? Only time will tell, but there are tell-tale signs:

• a)      Frequent purges of political dissidents and social media muzzling in China itself
• b)     Chinese public are not happy with the handling of COVID and recent Yang-Tse floods
• c)      China economy getting constricted along with rest of the world grappling with COVID and supply chain disruptions
• d)     Countries and companies wanting to move out of China - like Japan incentivising its companies to relocate from China, or Apple encouraging its suppliers like Foxcon to set up facilities in India & Vietnam (e.gs. of decoupling through China+1 strategy)
• e)     India is firmly staring him down in the Himalayas & IOR, Taiwan & Philippines are punching above their sizes, Putin's mis-adventure in Ukraine - all telling Xi, the world will not cow down before him without a solid fight
• f)       US has finally woken up to the long-term China danger - with the revised US doctrine on China, closing down of China’s Houston consulate + Confucius Institutes + Chinese Police Station in New York (US soil)!, wargames in South China Sea with two US super-aircraft carrier groups, etc.
• g)      Like-minded countries are forming blocs like Quad (US, India, Japan, Australia), Five Eyes (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK and the US), AUKUS (US, UK, Australia), I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE, US), etc.

Interesting times in geo-politics, with the world is re-shaping their strategies to contain and control Xi - the face of China, who is breathing fire ala the Chinese Dragon.

Disclaimer: This piece is written purely based on my personal opinions and is not intended to hurt anyone's sentiments or ideologies.