“It’s Not India's Decade, it's India's Century”: Fact or Fiction?

 

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This excerpt from a recent interview of McKinsey & Co.’s CEO Bob Sternfel “It’s not India's decade, it's India's century” has attracted much headline in the past few days.

I am making an effort here to examine the possibilities that this predictive statement will come true from the prisms of global politics, economics, military and all other associated power angles.

Firstly, I will stick my neck out by saying that arguably the role of India is and will be, of the most significant consequence in terms of shaping the new world order in the 21^st century (and I am saying this in a non-partisan way!). India has been and is, playing its cards well in various spheres, but there is much more to do!

Let’s also first set some context here. India was indeed a global leader once! As per data on historical GDP calculated by the late Angus Maddison, British economist and scholar on quantitative macroeconomic history, for more than 1700 years prior to the Industrial Revolution, India and China were the world’s two largest economies!

Now I will lay out some data points to buttress my point, while also calling out the flip sides of these to make it a more balanced assessment:

1)   1) In terms of population, India is currently the world’s 2^nd largest country, and as per the UN World Population Prospects Report of 2022, India is slated to overtake China as the world’s most populous country next year in 20203 with over 1.4 billion people. In 2050, India is projected to have a population of 1.66 billion, way ahead of China’s 1.31 billion. 

(To be noted though, there are also minuses of having a large population esp. wrt the inequitable distribution of wealth).

 2) In terms of demographic dividend, India is in a demographic dividend phase with half the total population being in the working-age group as of 2011, and will be in this zone for over two decades. In this time, the country will add another 183 million people to this age group by 2050. This means, as the UN Population Fund in 2019 observed, a whopping 22% of the global workforce added over the next three decades will come from India. (Again, there are minuses of this esp. wrt the challenge of inadequate numbers of job creation).

 3)  In terms of economy, as per latest IMF & SBI research reports, India’s GDP at US$ 3.535 trillion (in nominal terms) is currently the 5^th largest in the world (after the US, China, Japan & Germany). In Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms, at US$ 11.745 trillion India is the 3^rd largest economy in the world. India’s GDP share of the world is currently at 3.5%, and India is expected to be the 3^rd largest world economy in GDP terms by 2030 (after US & China) and the 2^nd largest around 2050 only after China. (However, in terms of Per Capita Income there are miles to go for India to be counted amongst the leaders).

 4)  In terms of military strength, as per the 2022 Global Fire Power report, India is ranked 4^th amongst 142 countries after the USA, Russia and China. India is amongst a select group of countries in the world which operates more than 1 aircraft carrier (Russia-sourced Vikramaditya and the recently inducted India-built Vikrant), nuclear-powered submarine (Russia-leased Chakra), own 4^th gen fighter aircrafts (LCA Tejas), own supersonic missiles (Brahmos, Aakash, Nag), own helicopters (LCH Dhruv), amongst many other state-of-the-art military platforms.  (On the flipside, India still is the largest arms importer in the world leading to large forex outflows. However, of late there is a strong emphasis on indigenisation efforts under “Atmanirbhar Bharat”).

 5)  In terms of size/geography, India is the 7^th largest country in the world, with a landmass of 3,287,263 square kilometres and a coastline of 7,500 plus kilometres. In terms of location, India is strategically positioned with a commanding and dominating view of the Indian Ocean (the name says it all!) on its south, and with the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal on its sides. All these are critical sea lanes in terms of global trade, and the Indian Ocean in conjunction with the Pacific Ocean (the much-quoted Indo-Pacific) is being touted as the theatre of current and future power influence & posturing by the global powers. Moreover, India’s Andaman & Nicobar Islands which are actually closer to Indonesia than India, acts as a force multiplier and strategic post for India to control critical shipping routes including the choke points of the narrow but strategic Malacca Strait. (On the flipside, India shares borders with Pakistan and China with whom we have our own long-standing problems which cannot be resolved in the foreseeable future, and one can’t just wish away a neighbour!) 

 6)  In terms of business, in sectors like Information Technology, Pharmaceuticals, Space Exploration, Renewable Energy (like Solar, Wind, etc.) amongst others, India is already recognised as a global leader. As per FAO, India is the world's largest producer of milk, pulses and jute, and ranks as the second largest producer of rice, wheat, sugarcane, groundnut, vegetables, fruits and cotton. It is also one of the leading producers of spices, fish, poultry, livestock, tea and plantation crops. In terms of metals & minerals, as per a Hindustan Times report dated September 15, 2022, India is the world’s largest producer of mica and amongst the top 5 producers of bauxite, iron, and zinc ore. Within industrial metals, India ranks second in terms of crude steel production and ranks as the fourth-largest producer of aluminium (primary), lead (refined), and zinc (slab). Further, India in spite of starting late, today has the world’s 3^rd largest start-up ecosystem, and also to be noted 25% of US start-ups are of Indian origin! Around 50 of the world’s largest corporates and organisations have an Indian at the helm as the CEO. Further, India has leapfrogged many developed countries wrt mobile and internet penetration. With the impending 5G rollouts and expected more affordable internet & mobile phones availability, more and more Indians will come the financial inclusivity. India has already shown the way to the world with its mega-scale tech-enabled platform rollouts and adoption like UIDAI Aadhaar, BHIM UPI, Jan Dhan Yojana, COWIN Vaccination, etc. (In terms of talent, fact of the matter is there has been a brain drain out of India since long and India needs to set up an overall business, infrastructure and societal environment & ecosystem which ensures that the bright students, talented professionals and the burgeoning start-up entrepreneurs can be in India and those who are abroad are attracted back to their homeland).

 7) In terms of soft power, India has traditionally been recognised as one of the world’s leading ancient civilisations. It has been and is the cradle and confluence of various religions, with major religions like Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, Sikhism, etc. all being born out of India. India is the world’s largest democracy with a long-standing and stable multi-party democracy setup since its Independence in 1947 (despite many challenges at various points in time). India has been at the forefront of contributing to global initiatives like the ones of the various UN organs (peacekeeping, flood relief, medicines, food, etc.), including the recent COVID global crisis where India donated the much-needed vaccines to needy countries across the world. Prime examples of India’s growing soft power is seen in the increased global adoption and popularity of the International Yoga Day, Bollywood & Tollywood movies, ethnic sports like Kabaddi, Durga Puja (UNESCO tag), amongst others. India is also today amongst the world’s leading travel & tourism destinations for many people across various parts of the world for sight-seeing, adventure, religious, cultural, medical, higher education, etc. purposes. Further, the Indian diaspora spread all over the world apart from being sources of forex remittances, are great ambassadors of India in the respective countries they reside in. (India however can and needs to do more to leverage its soft power credentials. Case in example can be emulating the Chinese way of setting up Confucius Institutes in various world capitals, by setting up India’s own centres).

 8)  In terms of diplomacy, India is an important & respected voice in the world and no longer needs to punch above its weight! Apart from Pakistan (and adding China, and to some extent Turkiye), India has cordial and good working relationships with all countries of the world. Though India has been unfairly kept out of the UN Security Council as a permanent member thus far, it will be difficult to keep India out for much longer (even for China!). Today India has built good relationships with the US and the Western world. The evolution of its “Act East” policy from the erstwhile “Look East” policy is paying dividends wrt the ASEAN countries and Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc. The focus on the Gulf & Islamic countries has yielded significant outcomes with countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt, etc. having standalone relationships with India which is not hinged with Pakistan or Kashmir! The investments made and continuing in the African countries has laid foundations of long-term friendships for India. The “Neighbourhood First” policy has seen moderate to good progress with countries like Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Myanmar and to some extent with Sri Lanka and Nepal. India’s relationships with Russia and Iran have been effectively managed, despite pressure from the USA. Relationships with the erstwhile SSRs have also seen a significant upswing. Recently India has also accelerated its efforts in the LATAM region, to expand beyond Brazil to Argentina, Venezuela, Ecuador, etc. Net-net, India’s footprint and sphere of influence is truly global now. (India, being in a tough neighbourhood and with China trying to increase its influence in South Asia, needs to be more accommodating and do much more to allay any apprehensions of big brotherly approach and help countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives, etc, who are being ensnared by China’s debt-trap diplomacy”).

While the above paints a rosy picture of India’s strengths and potential, we also have to be honest that not everything is hunky dory and there are real challenges which can’t be swept under the carpet. There are still significant drawbacks and obstacles that we need to overcome.

In my humble opinion, just by leveraging our aforesaid strengths only, India will not be able to achieve our collective national goal & aspiration of India becoming a developed nation and amongst the Top 3 countries in the world by 2047 (centenary year of our Independence). We also need to prioritise, focus and work dedicatedly on the below 12 points (To Dos) on a war footing like a ‘National Mission”:

1. Improve India’s rankings in the basic Human Development Indices like Health, Education, Life Expectancy, Standard of Living, etc.
2. Poverty alleviation and equitable distribution of wealth
3. More and meaningful empowerment of women & the economically weaker sections of our population
4. Focus on research & education in STEM-related fields and employment generation at a rapid pace to leverage our demographic dividend
5. Rapid improvement of Infrastructure and Manufacturing base
6. Modernisation of Agriculture and Farming practices
7. Adoption of latest Technologies across various sectors of the economy, especially moving towards Green Economy that will reduce dependence on fossil fuels (and hence lesser forex outflow) and achieving the climate & environment goals.
8. Formulating effective policies and creating a business environment which can lead to acceleration of those sectors where India is lagging behind other countries
9. Improving Ease of Living & Doing Business by cutting down the red tape (bureaucratic layers)
10. Pushing self-reliance in sectors which are vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions
11. Weeding out corruption at all levels of government, business and society
12. Each of us (resident and non-resident diaspora) doing our small bit individually in terms of nation building & growth (rather than just cribbing and complaining!)

There have been some laudable initiatives undertaken by the GOI targeted towards addressing the aforesaid challenges, viz., Make in India, Digital India, Skill India, Start-up India, Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-Reliant India), Smart Cities Mission, AMRUT Yojana (Urban Transportation Rejuvenation), Ayushman Bharat (Affordable Healthcare). Swachh Bharat (Clean India), Beti Bachao Beti Padao (Save the Girl Child, Educate the Girl Child), Khelo India (Sports & Youth), Gati Shakti (Multi-Modal Connectivity), Jal Jeevan Mission (Clean Drinking Water), Har Ghar Bijli Yojana (Electricity for All), Ujjwala Yojana (Cooking Gas for All), amongst a slew of others. A detailed list of such schemes is made available by the GOI at https://www.india.gov.in/my-government/schemes.

However, for these schemes to be successful (and not remain as mere slogans), there has to be adequate financial outlay for each scheme with effective, time-bound and quality execution on the ground so that the benefits do reach the last mile intended beneficiaries.

It will take the collective will and honest efforts of each one of us Indians at every level to ensure that India takes its deserving place in the world stage. We can’t and shouldn’t leave it to the government alone! Sincerely hope that we see our dreams of India as a universally accepted and respected global leader getting fulfilled in our lifetimes. Let’s make India Great Again! Jai Hind!

A Blog Series on Geo-Politics & Geo-Economics

Dated: September 17, 2022

Author: Subham Sarkar (https://www.linkedin.com/in/subham-sarkar-519b7114/)

Disclaimer: The contents of this article are purely in an individual capacity and based on information available in the public domain and the personal opinions of the author.